326 – Weather Forecasting at the ECMWF
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Guests: Hilda Carr, Peter Bauer, Tony McNally
Host: Markus Voelter Shownoter: Thomas Machowinski
Earlier this year I visited the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, a European organization that produces global weather forecasts and performs research on how to improve those. The episode has three parts. First, Hilda Carr gives us an overview of the organization, its purpose and its history. Then I talk with Peter Bauer about weather and climate modeling and about encoding these models efficiently in software programs that run on supercomputers. Part three is a conversation with Tony McNally about where the ECMWF gets its data and how it is continuously fed into the “running” model.
Introduction
00:05:18Hilda Carr | European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast | European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast | ECMWF Twitter Account | 350 People are working at ECMWF (Medium Range Forecast - Seasonal Forecast) | Meteoblue <meteoblue.com>
Modeling
00:26:17Peter Bauer | Overturning Circulation (James Gleick - Chaos: Making a New Science) | Ensemble Forecasting | Machine Learning | Climate Model | Trace Gas
Observation Integration
02:06:38Tony McNally | Earth Observation | Data Assimilation in Weather Forecasting | Chart Viewer at ECMWF Website
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This was very interesting. I hadn’t realized before just how many different physical processes are considered in weather forecasting.
There is one thing I have to nitpick. Indiana is not all flat. The southern part of Indiana is hilly. There is al lot of limestone mining in the Bloomington and Bedford area. That limestone was used in the Empire State Building. In Paoli Peaks you can ever go skiing, which I personally have done.
Very interesting episode!
Small question: part of the talk with Peter briefly mentioned a book about chaos theory, do you mind linking it in the show notes?
https://www.amazon.de/CHAOS-Making-Science-James-Gleick/dp/0749386061
Great episode. I had just watched a part of “Last week tonight” about the importance of federal and independent weather forecasting. Before, not really something i have thought of much. So this episode fitted perfectly for me. Great guests and as allways brilliant preperation. I really appreciate your work Markus. I have learned a ton via omegatau by now.
Greetings from Dortmund
Markus
Danke Markus :-)
How to turn a super-computer into a “magic 8-ball”.
Climate Catastrophe is totally not just a religion.
Very informative, thanks to you and to your guests.
Since the chaos-“hype” during the 80th or 90th of the previous century it is quite common knowledge for every geek that the key to knowing the later state of a complex system is complete knowledge about the initial conditions.
In this context it is very interesting to learn about the effort ECMWF puts into (re)constructing knowledge about the current state of the weather system.
The 1%-2% of peak theoretical performance obtained from the Cray supercomputer at ECMWF made me wonder if addressing the (I/O?) bottleneck in the existing machine would permit a 10x-20x speed up. Instead of procuring a new supercomputer as per current strategy. Any possible feedback about that?
Thanks for the very interesting episode.